Strategy’s bitcoin transaction triggers a $14 million betting frenzy on Polymarket. The 8-K filing from Strategy on Monday revealed sales from May 26 to May 31, but the announcement was made on June 1. The Polymarket contract dated May 31 currently shows an 81% Yes and is under review, as bettors debate whether onchain timestamps or the filing date should dictate the outcome.

Key points:

— A $15 million prediction market on Polymarket is contested after Strategy’s initial bitcoin sale raised issues on whether trades made between May 26 and May 31 should be counted towards a May 31 deadline.

— Supporters of ‘Yes’ claim that onchain timestamps and Strategy’s 8-K, which indicates 32 bitcoin were sold during that period and presents details “as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time,” demonstrate that the sale happened in time. Meanwhile, ‘No’ supporters argue that the absence of public disclosure prior to June 1 disqualifies it.

— The disputed contracts from May 31, June 30, and December 31 have accumulated around $24.7 million in trading volume, with UMA’s optimistic oracle set to make the final decision, even as later-dated markets now anticipate Strategy’s bitcoin sales as almost guaranteed.

The first publicly announced bitcoin sale by Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) has initiated a $15 million resolution dispute on Polymarket. Although the sale was disclosed in a June 1 filing, the actual transactions took place in late May. Bettors are divided over whether the sales completed between May 26 and May 31 should be valid for the prediction market’s May 31 cutoff, with the contract currently at 81% Yes and marked as