Bitcoin is nearing a significant power law support level that Fidelity has monitored since 2015. Jurien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, describes this as an accumulation area but points out that there is currently no catalyst for a rebound.

— Bitcoin is moving toward the lower support line of a long-standing power-law price model around $58,000, indicating it is approaching a historically recognized accumulation zone.

— Indicators showing how far Bitcoin trades below its trendline and compared to gold have decreased to levels last seen at the 2018 and 2022 lows, although Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer is not ready to declare a bottom just yet.

— Timmer anticipates that Bitcoin may hover around this support level for months without a liquidity trigger, mentioning that speculative investments have shifted from Bitcoin to gold and are now moving into semiconductor stocks.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, notes that Bitcoin is drifting toward the lower boundary of the model he has tracked for years. This model is based on the power law, which plots the entire price history of Bitcoin on a logarithmic chart defined by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support line that has captured every major bottom since 2015.

According to Timmer’s latest chart, the support line is positioned near $58,000, while Bitcoin is currently around $62,700, approaching this critical level.

The lower section of the chart is where Timmer expects accumulation to occur. It shows how far Bitcoin is trading above or below the power law trendline, with that gap currently at negative 56%. This depth is designated as the accumulation zone and corresponds with the lows observed in 2018 and 2022. The 52-week assessment of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has similarly fallen to about negative 100%.

Timmer is withholding his call on a bottom for now. He has indicated that the speculative premium that drove Bitcoin above $120,000 last year has largely dissipated, global money supply growth is decelerating, and he sees no triggers for a turnaround until liquidity returns.

However, he believes Bitcoin could linger near the support line for an extended period before reversing, rather than experiencing a swift bounce back.

The quick capital has already exited. Timmer notes that investments have rotated from Bitcoin into gold and from gold into semiconductors, which is where the current focus lies.

— 1

— 2

— 3

— 4

— 5

— 6

— 7

— 8

— 9

— 10

Digital assets experienced a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, marking the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional investments shifted toward AI stocks and Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest quarterly outflows since inception. Our report analyzes the reasons behind this divergence, the continued structural adoption, and the key signals to monitor for Q3.

Digital assets recorded a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest downturn since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital moved into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs faced their largest quarterly outflow since they began. Our report investigates the factors that caused this divergence, where structural adoption persisted, and what signals to keep an eye on for Q3.

Why it matters:

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.