Prediction market traders are becoming more optimistic that Washington will pass a crypto market structure bill, with odds climbing sharply on Kalshi and Polymarket.

— Prediction-market traders are becoming more optimistic that Washington will pass a crypto market structure bill, with odds rising sharply on Kalshi and Polymarket.

— The legislation continues to encounter a steep uphill battle: a Senate cloture vote on Tuesday demands 60 votes, and even if it clears that hurdle, it may still be subject to amendments, House reconciliation and eventual presidential approval.

— Prediction-market traders are becoming increasingly hopeful that Washington could finally enact a crypto market structure bill, with odds climbing to multi-week highs on Kalshi and Polymarket.

— Polymarket participants estimate a nearly 30% probability that the Clarity Act will become law this year as of Monday morning, up from 12% earlier in September, marking the highest level since early August per the event contract’s dashboard.

— On Kalshi, the contract tracking whether the crypto market structure bill becomes law before October 1 2027 rose to a peak of 64% overnight from 26% on Thursday, before settling near 53% on Monday morning.

— Traders assign a 53% chance of passage before July 1, up from 30% on Thursday after a brief spike to 69%, while the probability of enactment before April now stands at 45%, about double Thursday’s 23%.

— These shifts indicate traders perceive a clearer route for crypto legislation as the Senate nears a pivotal procedural vote on Tuesday, though a substantial distance remains between a favorable vote and the president’s signature.

— Tuesday’s Senate cloture vote demands 60 senators, compelling the bill to secure bipartisan backing; surpassing that threshold would mark a key political milestone but would not constitute final Senate approval.

— Lawmakers may still endure an extensive amendment process for the bill, and any revisions would need to be reconciled with the House before reaching the president, with the congressional calendar introducing additional uncertainty.

— The next step rests with Democrats, since the proposal was not part of a negotiated package, an analyst noted.

— Jaret Sieberg, a financial policy analyst at TD Cowen, argued that Democratic lawmakers may not find sufficient justification to get on board, keeping his estimate of the Clarity Act’s passage at 25% on Monday.

— “We are not convinced the revised ethics language released by Senate Republicans last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats,” he wrote in a note to clients.

— Key challenges for Democrats include President Trump’s ability to retain crypto investments even if placed in a blind trust, which would not distance him from the industry he influences; the authority of state attorneys general to sue remains limited, with no direct action against the president, and a yes vote would be framed by Trump as a personal triumph, potentially harming his November election prospects.

— Conversely, Sieberg highlighted that the amendments could provide Democrats with greater political cover to support the bill, and bankers may feel more comfortable due to added protections for deposit accounts against customers shifting to stablecoins.

— He added that, since the administration has not yet nominated Democrats to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission, those appointments could be used to sweeten the deal in final negotiations.

— Tokenized equities are driving inflows into real‑world assets as the market rebounds; Binance’s bStocks reached roughly $118.5 million in two months, positioning the firm as the second‑largest issuer and accounting for about 90% of on‑chain equity DEX volume.

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