Traders could look past an expected Fed hike and weigh what higher rates are signaling about the economy.
- A September Fed rate hike is largely priced in, which LMAX says could limit the market reaction if policymakers deliver as expected.
- Bitcoin and gold rose after the CPI report, a move Risk Dimensions says reflects concerns about inflation and U.S. policy credibility.
- A surprise Fed hold could produce the bigger move, with LMAX seeing the potential for a stronger rally in bitcoin and other risk assets.
The Federal Reserve looks increasingly likely to raise rates next week after the hot core CPI reading Friday. Markets have had plenty of time to prepare, which now raises the question of whether a hike will have much bite.
Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, above the 0.2% economists expected. Headline inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, both in line with forecasts.
The report followed hotter producer-price data earlier in the week and came a day after the European Central Bank raised rates. Bank of America expects the Fed to follow with a 25-basis-point increase next week, with another 50 basis points of tightening by year-end.
Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola said the latest inflation data make it “increasingly difficult to justify a pause.”
Bitcoin, though, rose following the report, currently at $78,600, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours.
Joel Kruger, global markets strategist at LMAX Group, said traders were already leaning toward a hike before the CPI numbers landed.
“A good deal of the hawkish risk is arguably priced in,” Kruger said.
That could leave markets with a relatively muted response if the Fed does what everyone expects. The bigger move may come if the central bank refrains from raising rates.
“We see greater potential for an outsized move in risk assets to the topside should the Fed ultimately fail to deliver on these hawkish expectations,” Kruger said.
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, doesn’t see a hike as an automatic problem for bitcoin. He said bitcoin has gained an average 2.13% over the 30 days following hotter-than-expected core CPI readings.
Mena also pointed to gains in ether and solana (SOL) as a sign that traders haven’t backed away from crypto risk.
“That’s due to inflation and credibility issues,” Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors said, noting the rise in bitcoin and gold following this morning’s data. Connors had previously argued that softer measures of inflation could give Fed Chair Kevin Warsh room to hold rates. Friday’s data changed the picture.
“The market has now challenged both sides of policy,” Connors said. “Bessent went first. Even tripling Treasury buybacks hasn’t tamed the long end. Now, Warsh, after talking disinflation, is being forced towards higher rates.”
Connors pointed to yields rising across the Treasury curve even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expanded long-duration bond buybacks. He sees the move as a sign that investors are worried about more than where the Fed sets rates next week.
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That may also help explain bitcoin’s resilience. Higher rates would normally be a headwind for bitcoin because they make yield-bearing assets more attractive. But Connors argues that if yields are also climbing because investors are worried about inflation, government debt and policy credibility, bitcoin and gold can trade as alternatives at the same time.
“We can’t print oil, and you can’t debase bitcoin,” Connors said.
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Tokenized Equities Lead RWA Inflows as bStocks Sets the Pace
Tokenized Equities Lead RWA Inflows as bStocks Sets the Pace
Tokenized equities lead RWA inflows as the market recovers; Binance’s bStocks hit ~$118.5M in two months, now #2 issuer and ~90% of on-chain equity DEX volume.
Why it matters:
Tokenized equities lead RWA inflows as the market recovers; Binance’s bStocks hit ~$118.5M in two months, now #2 issuer and ~90% of on-chain equity DEX volume.
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