Samson Mow asserts that bitcoin has reached its lowest point, despite ongoing doubts from analysts. The bitcoin proponent claims his assertion is grounded in the alteration of the traditional four-year halving cycle, even as various analysts anticipate further declines.

— Mow contends that the price of bitcoin has already found its bottom, stating that the typical four-year halving cycle has sped up following an all-time high that occurred 37 days prior to the April 2024 halving.

— Conversely, other analysts argue that bitcoin might not have hit its lowest point yet, citing technical indicators like bear crosses in long-term moving averages and the 200-week moving average as evidence that more downside could be on the horizon.

— Predictions for a potential bottom vary significantly, with some analysts suggesting limited downside potential while others forecast that bitcoin may dip into the $40,000 to $55,000 range later this year before establishing a sustainable low.

Mow declared, ‘The bitcoin bottom is in,’ in a post on X on Sunday, emphasizing that the conventional four-year halving cycle has accelerated.

‘I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,’’ stated Mow, who is recognized for his $1 million bitcoin prediction and his involvement with El Salvador’s bitcoin initiatives, along with his efforts to promote nation-state bitcoin adoption globally.

‘However, we had an (all-time high) ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in,’ Mow noted, who previously served as the chief strategy officer at Adam Back’s Blockstream.

Mow believes that bitcoin reaching a then-all-time high just 37 days before the April 2024 halving indicates that the traditional four-year cycle has changed, making historical cycle comparisons less dependable.

Mow is not the first to suggest that the conventional four-year cycle of bitcoin has evolved. Following bitcoin’s rise to a then-all-time high before the April 2024 halving, several analysts indicated that increasing institutional demand triggered by the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs could modify the historical patterns that have followed each halving. Nonetheless, others contended that it was premature to conclude that the cycle had shifted.

$55,000 more likely

Not everyone is on the same page. Several analysts have recently argued that bitcoin is either nearing a market bottom or still has room to fall, albeit they base their conclusions on different indicators and models.

Decryptnews market analyst Omkar Godbole recently mentioned that if you were ‘wondering just how much lower bitcoin is likely to drop, the answer, at least according to one historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.’

This indicator relies on bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, which reflects approximately one year, is very close to dropping below the 100-week line, resulting in what analysts refer to as a ‘bear cross.’ Historically, similar signals have coincided with market bottoms, leading some analysts to interpret the pattern as bullish.

Recently, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, expressed his belief that the bottom is more likely around $55,000 and not until sometime between August and October. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMex, took a more pessimistic stance, predicting that bitcoin would bottom out at approximately $40,000 within the next six months.

James Van Straten, a senior analyst at Decryptnews, recently stated that bitcoin may still need to drop by 15% or more to establish the bottom. He based this forecast on the long-standing indicator known as the 200-week moving average.

‘With bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, on-chain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground,’ he wrote.

Van Straten pointed out that in every significant bear market since 2011, bitcoin has eventually traded below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom. ‘So far, bitcoin has not fallen beneath this level in the current cycle,’ he added.