Since the beginning of November 2025, bitcoin has sagged from levels around $110,000 to below $99,000. Between October 27 and November 5 alone, the drop was about 15%.

The dominance of the first cryptocurrency in the market grew as the altcoin sector sagged more and more — many of them lost 15-20% in value over the week.

Sentiment in the crypto market has become the worst in recent months. The fear and greed index fell into the “extreme fear” zone. The last time such values were recorded back in early April 2025.

Incrypted editorial staff analyzed the situation in the crypto market and collected the opinions of experts regarding the further prospects of bitcoin and altcoins. We are talking about the usual correction within the framework of a bullish trend, or the market is entering a prolonged decline — read in the material.

Key metrics

• Bitcoin

Over the past almost 10 days, the price of the first cryptocurrency has fallen from around $115,000 to below $98,000. The last time the market saw such levels was back in June 2025.

• Dominance of bitcoin and altcoins

Against the backdrop of the correction, bitcoin’s dominance in the market was growing, with the indicator rising to 61.3%.

Negative dynamics in the altcoin sector continued: over the last week, the value of most of them sagged by more than 15%.

• Fear among crypto investors

Sentiment in the crypto market has fallen to its lowest levels in months.

On November 4, the Fear and Greed Index fell to 21 points — the “extreme fear” zone. The last time such values were recorded was in early April 2025. Even during the market crash on the night of October 11, 2025, the index only fell to 24 points.

• Cryptocurrency ETFs

In addition, spot bitcoin-ETF and Ethereum-ETFs are showing negative weekly performance. Over the past five trading days, outflows from these products totaled about $1.9 billion and $719 million, respectively, according to data from SoSoValue.

What triggered the market decline?

Note, despite the positive news background, the crypto market underwent a deep correction. Among the factors that were supposed to support growth, CryptoQuant experts named the Fed’s decision to cut the rate by 0.25% and end the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the trade truce between the U.S. and China, signals of monetary policy reversal and approval of ETFs for altcoin staking.

However, they said bitcoin prices and leading U.S. stock indices went down due to weakening institutional demand. Coinbase’s premium has turned negative again, indicating that large investors are less interested in buying assets, analysts said.

Additional pressure was exerted by the statements of Fed chief Jerome Powell – he confirmed the completion of QT on December 1, but noted that further rate cuts are not guaranteed. Geopolitics also played its role: despite the public “truce” between the U.S. and China analysts call it temporary, and the tension around Taiwan and reports of possible nuclear tests only increased uncertainty, experts emphasized.

Another reason for the fall is called the sale of assets by long-term owners. Analysts at QCP Capital said that “old” whales are putting pressure on the bitcoin price. According to their data, more than 400,000 BTC were withdrawn from “old” wallets in 30 days.

However, not all experts see this sell-off as signaling the end of the bull market. Credible Crypto analyst called it a natural rotation of assets, while onchain researcher Willie Wu agreed that such dynamics are characteristic of bull phases.

Investor and founder of crypto fund Capriole Charles Edwards said institutional accumulation had slowed, with inflows below new bitcoin issuance for the first time in seven months.

Jerry O’Shea, head of market analytics at Hashdex, believes that the current situation is a result of macroeconomic expectations. Among them are negative expectations of further Fed rate cuts, tensions in the credit sector and stock market overvaluation.

According to Omid Malekan, a professor at Columbia Business School, the recent fall of the crypto market is not only caused by macro factors. According to him, companies that manage digital treasuries (DATs) have also contributed to the subsidence by actually squeezing prices instead of keeping the market stable.

As a result, experts cite the main reasons for the collapse as:

• weak institutional demand and Coinbase’s negative premium.
• outflows of funds from bitcoin-ETFs.
• sales by large long-term owners.
• macroeconomic situation.
• geopolitical risks.
• corporate treasury players.
• tensions in credit markets and the revaluation of the US stock market.

Current Situation Analysis

• Risk of bitcoin collapsing to $72,000 with a loss of the $100,000 level

CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno believes that the bitcoin price could sag to $72,000 in the next one to two months if it fails to hold the $100,000 level.

According to him, demand for the first cryptocurrency has been weakening noticeably since the market crash on the night of October 11. He pointed to negative flows in bitcoin-ETFs, a decline in premium on Coinbase and a drop in the Bull Score index to 20 points — deep into bearish conditions.

• The $101,000 level is key

An expert under the pseudonym CryptoOnchain believes that the “decisive battle” is now at the $101,000 mark. According to him, if buyers are able to hold this level, the latest drop can be considered just an aberration and a potential entry opportunity.

But if the price fixes below $101,000 on the daily timeframe — it will deal a serious blow to the bullish structure of the market and open the way for a deeper correction, the expert believes.

• RSI points to further growth

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66 points, which indicates a “strong uptrend”, the PlanB analyst believes.

• Bitcoin correlates with the S&P 500 and the market is oversold

Santiment noted that starting in 2022, bitcoin and the S&P 500 move almost synchronously as both markets are influenced by common macro and geopolitical factors. According to analysts, usually, when stocks are holding steady — risky sentiment moves to cryptocurrencies, and sharp stock market drawdowns are accompanied by a fall in digital assets.

In early November, however, bitcoin deviated sharply from this pattern: it fell 12.2%, while the S&P 500 declined only 1.6%. This divergence may indicate that the crypto market is “oversold”. Often in such cases there is a “rubber band effect” — the capitulation of speculators precedes a sharp rebound, Santiment noted.

“If the S&P 500 stabilizes or begins to rise, a stronger bitcoin drawdown leaves much more room for a potential recovery. This could create favorable conditions for a major rally in the crypto market once U.S. and global stock markets go up again. Therefore, the recent divergence of BTC and S&P 500 dynamics may not be a sign of structural weakness, but on the contrary — an opportunity for traders who are ready to wait out some more pain,” experts summarized.

• Realized Losses Rise

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that a noticeable jump in realized losses has been recorded — this may indicate a certain capitulation among bitcoin holders. He added that there is still significant selling of coins by long-term owners right now, and the key question is whether this pressure will continue at these levels.

• The current correction is not significant

An expert under the pseudonym Maartunn said that the current bitcoin drawdown looks relatively moderate. According to him, bitcoin is now trading about 15% below its all-time high — the biggest drop since April 2025. However, this is still significantly less than the 20%-50% collapses seen during the 2019-2021 bull rally, he noted.

What’s next for the market?

Negative predictions

Financial analyst Jacob King believes that bitcoin is closely correlated with the stock market and will fall many times more than other assets. He called the first cryptocurrency the worst asset to hold during a recession. Every time in history when the economy has weakened, bitcoin has lost 85-95% of its value — and it will do the same this time, King said.

“The whole narrative about ‘preserving value’ or ‘protecting against inflation’ was invented by maximalists. Satoshi never described bitcoin that way because it’s not true,” the expert summarized.

Analyst Jesse Olson said that this is not the beginning of a bull cycle for bitcoin, because it actually started back in 2023, when the first signs of a reversal appeared at the end of 2022. According to him, the monthly MACD was the final confirmation of the trend, and those who were waiting for it were already too late.

Crypto analyst Ted noted that the market is very sensitive to liquidity — and simply ending QT will not be enough. He recalls the situation in Q3 2019, when the Fed ended QT, but altcoins still fell another 40% or so.

In his opinion, this time the scenario will be similar: until new liquidity enters the system, most altcoins will continue to update lows. Some individual tokens may show better dynamics, but the market as a whole will move downward, the expert believes.

Positive forecasts

Santiment emphasized that for the market to recover, the following picture should be seen: large players should start accumulating again, while small traders should capitulate — that is, lose patience and fix losses.

Such a scenario historically signals the formation of the market bottom and creates conditions for a new cycle of growth, experts said.

Binance co-founder Yi He is confident in the future of cryptocurrencies. She recalled that every time bitcoin fell, people said, “Crypto is dead.”

“In every cycle, someone exits the market, someone leaves here in tears, and someone ends up laughing. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” noted He.

Analyst Axel Adler believes the market should already be starting to attempt a recovery. According to him, a very large number of short positions have accumulated — and this is potential “fuel” for a sharp rebound.

Besides, he noted that from the technical point of view the market is oversold now, but before a stable reversal it usually needs a period of consolidation.

Raul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor and RealVision, believes that the key macro factor today is global liquidity, and all market attention should be focused on it.

In his opinion, the current government shutdown in the U.S. has caused a sharp tightening of liquidity, which puts the most pressure on the crypto market, which is most sensitive to its deficit.

However, Pal predicts that after the end of the shutdown, the situation will change: a large-scale injection of funds by the US Treasury will begin — “the body will start spending $250-$350 billion in a couple of months,” QT will end, the balance sheet will expand, and the dollar will probably begin to weaken.

According to the expert, the next steps — completion of tariff negotiations, Treasury bills issued, gradual rate cuts, and passage of the CLARITY ACT — will provide the impetus for credit expansion and give the crypto industry regulatory certainty.

Pal is convinced: the market is going through a window of pain right now, but there is a new influx of liquidity ahead. Therefore, the most important thing is to keep a cool head and wait out the volatility.

Bitwise Investment Director Matt Gaughan believes that retail investors are at their most despondent right now — however, this is what he believes could signal the proximity of a market bottom. Despite bitcoin’s sharp decline, he is convinced that there will be no full-fledged “cryptowinter” this time, and the market is capable of turning around and recovering by the end of the year.

Nick Pakrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau, emphasized that the short dip in bitcoin price below $100,000 has a strong psychological effect, but does not indicate a change in market structure. In his opinion, a decline of about 20% from the all-time high for cryptocurrencies is not a crash, but often just a buying opportunity.

He also emphasized that the recent sell-off only once again showed the duality of the first cryptocurrency’s role — simultaneously as an institutional asset and a highly liquid risk instrument. Pakrin is convinced: the overall bullish narrative has not changed, and reaching the cycle peak around $150,000 is still a realistic scenario.

Conclusion

Experts cite weak institutional demand, large outflows from ETFs and sales by long-term holders as the main reasons for the market’s decline.

Some analysts warn that bitcoin’s anchoring below $100,000 could open the way for further declines. Others note that the market looks oversold, and a large number of short positions could be the “fuel” for a rebound. Some analysts believe that the current subsidence is part of a bull cycle, rather than a reversal into a deep cryptozyme.

There is also an opinion that the formation of the bottom historically occurs when small traders capitulate and large players begin to accumulate again.

Some experts still see the potential for a new rally if liquidity returns and the macro backdrop stabilizes. However, there are also those who believe that the growth cycle of the crypto market is over.