The probability of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 is estimated at 76%, based on bets on the Polymarket platform. The likely reason is that Congress failed to pass a temporary funding bill.

According to Bloomberg, on 19 September, the Senate blocked both versions of the temporary funding plan — neither the Republican nor the Democratic versions received the required number of votes. After that, senators went on recess until 29 September, further increasing the risk of a shutdown.

President Donald Trump explicitly acknowledged the possibility of a government shutdown:

“We’ll continue to talk to the Democrats but I think you could very well end up with a closed country for a period of time,” he said at the Oval Office.

Earlier, he also blamed the Democrats, saying they “want to close the country”.

Meanwhile, at the time of publication, 64% of the platform’s users were betting on a government shutdown by 1 October.

The political conflict centers on healthcare spending. Democrats are demanding additional funding and are proposing a $1.5 trillion bill that includes $350 billion to extend Obamacare tax subsidies and restore Medicaid funding.

Republicans, on the other hand, insist on a “clean” short-term solution with no new spending until 21 November.

“The choice is pretty clear. It’s going to be funding the government through a clean, short-term continuing resolution or it’s going to be a government shutdown. That’s the choice Democrats have,” said Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune.

Financial markets are still reacting with restraint, considering the possible shutdown to be another round of political bargaining in Washington. This time, however, the positions of the parties are much tougher, so the risk of both the government shutdown itself and its protracted nature is growing, the publication said.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is currently trading at $111,541, according to TradingView.

Nevertheless, the market correction led to the liquidation of traders on futures contracts worth $400 million per day.

On 17 September, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% from December 2024, which had a positive impact on the crypto market.