Bitcoin fell below $81,000 after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in October. Markets pared the odds of an October rate increase to about 26% to 30% after initially pricing in a nearly 50% chance following the inflation report.

Fragile institutional demand, including $150.5 million in U.S. spot bitcoin ETF outflows on Oct. 14, and broader economic uncertainty are weighing on liquidity and risk appetite. According to Decryptnews data, the largest cryptocurrency by market value was trading just below $81,000 early Thursday, down nearly 1% since midnight UTC.

Prices came close to $80,000 on Wednesday before a brief rebound to about $81,500, but that gain has largely reversed during the Asian session. Prices are down more than 2% in the past 24 hours.

Data released Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.4% in August and above economists’ expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 2.6%, accelerating from 2.4% the previous month.

Markets have quickly repriced the odds of a Fed move. On prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of an October rate hike briefly spiked to nearly 50% after the CPI release before easing to about 30%.

CME’s FedWatch tool showed a similar pattern: odds initially jumped to almost 47% from roughly 22%, before retreating to 26% as of writing. “Stronger U.S. inflation data has renewed concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus.

“September inflation rose to 3.7% annually, increasing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. Institutional demand also remains fragile.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $150.5 million in outflows on October 14, reversing the previous day’s $175.7 million inflow.” Market-making firm STS Digital said the uncertainty could weigh on liquidity across markets. “With the next FOMC a coin flip, this uncertainty is damaging liquidity and dampening risk appetite across all asset classes,” the firm’s Anderson told Decryptnews in an email.

Still, Anderson thinks the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month, which is consistent with the over 70% probability of a status quo decision priced by the CME Fed funds futures as of this writing. “Despite recent optimism in digital assets, tokens now look increasingly sensitive to macro factors, with energy shocks, fixed-income volatility and AI valuations weighing on sentiment,” he added.

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