Bitcoin’s surging price faces 1 key level that could signal if the bear market is really over

Your day-ahead look for Aug. 25, 2026

This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

Bitcoin

That hurdle is the simple moving average price over the past 50 weeks, currently around $81,087. Historically, reclaiming this level has been one of the clearest signs that a bear market is actually over, not just pausing.

«11 of 13 times BTCUSD reclaimed the 50w MA during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was in. It currently sits around $82k. If BTCUSD reclaims it on weekly close, history suggests the bear market would likely be over,» Galaxy Research said.

Moving averages are tracked by traders and analysts to gauge momentum across different timeframes. Among the most widely followed are the 50-, 100-, and 200-period averages across daily, weekly, and other timeframes. Because so many market participants watch the same levels, they tend to become self-fulfilling, acting as real support and resistance simply because enough traders treat them that way.

While the 50-week figure is still out of reach, the price has already blown through all three of the key averages on the daily time frame, in a move Dan Tapiero, the founder of 50T Funds, called an «extreme momentous break up in BTC and complex.» 50T is a multibillion-dollar private growth equity fund investing in mid-to-late stage digital asset companies.

Tapiero added that the cycle low is already in. «Hardest thing to buy here if you aren’t long already. Greatest amount of pain is back to 100k immediately,” he noted. Others observers echoed similar sentiments on social media.

Momentum is genuinely strong, but at least one measure suggests markets typically need to catch their breath after a run this hot. That’s the seven-day rate of change (ROC), which tracks the rolling percentage move in price over the past week. It currently sits near 25%. (Check the Daily Signal, below.)

Readings at or above that level are rare and have typically been followed by a pullback or a period of consolidation rather than an immediate continuation higher. Stay alert!

What’s trending

— Treasury’s bond buyback plan fights the market and heightens the danger, billionaire Druckenmiller says (CoinDesk): Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said governments trying to insulate price movements from economic fundamentals always lose, referring to the U.S. Treasury’s $4 billion bond buyback decision to tame long-dated yields, which recently hit their highest since 2007.

— Bitcoin traders place $2.9 million bet on a rapid price jump above $82,000 (CoinDesk): On Monday, one or more traders bought 2,000 bitcoin call-option contracts with an $82,000 strike price expiring on Sept. 4.

— U.S. widens Iran crackdown to encompass crypto, gold, shipping and technology (CoinDesk): The U.S. Treasury added Iran’s crypto industry to the sectors it can sanction, opening foreign exchanges, brokers and service providers to potential blacklisting as Washington expands financial pressure on Tehran.

— World shares mostly gain and oil prices slip as the US raises pressure on Iran (AP): Shares were mostly higher in Europe and Asia after U.S. stocks drifted to a mixed finish ahead of potentially market-moving events later in the week. Oil prices fell after the U.S. levied new sanctions against Iran and warned countries to stop doing business with Tehran.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin’s price swings in candlestick format since 2021. The bottom pane shows the seven-day rate of change (RoC).

The latest reading of 25% has been rare over the past five years. Each time it has appeared, it has presaged a slowdown in the uptrend or a period of temporary consolidation.

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