Markets respond positively to the breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran, though concerns about risks in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve remain significant. Here’s what to expect on June 15, 2026. This is an excerpt from Decryptnews newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran have come to a peace agreement, set to be signed on June 19. Among various stipulations, the deal includes lifting the U.S. naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Following this announcement, crude oil prices dropped by 5%, settling around $80 per barrel, marking a decline of approximately 33% from the peak of $120 seen in early March.

In response to the news, equity markets surged, with indexes rising globally, except in Tel Aviv. U.S. stocks also experienced a rally in pre-market trading, with the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, gaining 2% in pre-market activity.

Bitcoin

This new ceasefire will remain effective for another 60 days while discussions for a final agreement continue. However, it is important to recognize the many fluctuations in negotiations in recent months, including ceasefires, breakdowns, and renewed agreements, which imply that achieving a sustainable resolution may not be straightforward.

Additionally, on June 17, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will lead his first FOMC meeting. Currently, markets are anticipating a 97% chance that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%.

With the recent significant drop in oil prices, investors are no longer factoring in any interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year. Expectations for the next 25 basis-point increase have now been postponed to January 2027, although this could change if the situation in the Middle East becomes more complex. Stay vigilant!

What’s trending

— Is this the real deal? U.S., Iran peace agreement imminent (CNBC): The U.S. and Iran have made substantial progress in their attempts to end the conflict, with President Donald Trump stating that a peace agreement will be signed on June 19, allowing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. naval blockade.

— Oil prices reach three-month lows following US-Iran agreement (CNN): Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell by 5% to $82.91 per barrel shortly after 5 a.m. ET, after settling at its lowest price since March 5, coinciding with the initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran. WTI crude also hit its lowest since early March.

— Bitcoin traders should keep an eye on Tuesday’s BOJ rate decision. Yen shorts are at a nine-year peak (Decryptnews): A significant accumulation of speculative short positions in the yen heightens the risk of a sharp short squeeze if the Bank of Japan indicates more aggressive tightening, potentially unwinding yen-funded carry trades that support risk assets.

— What SpaceX’s IPO signifies for its $1.3 billion bitcoin reserve (Decryptnews): The largest publicly traded company now holds bitcoin as a treasury reserve rather than a business model. Its initial earnings cycles will determine which approach to corporate crypto endures in a bear market.

Today’s signal

The chart illustrates bitcoin’s weekly price changes along with its Fibonacci levels and relative strength index (RSI). The price rebounded from a support level of $60,000 — established at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement — but even at its current level of $65,600, it remains within a broader downtrend characterized by a series of lower highs. The RSI stands weak at 37, and a weekly close above $66,000 would indicate a tentative recovery. However, failing to reach that level keeps $60,000 vulnerable. If a breakout occurs, the next resistance levels are at $68,900, followed by $80,000-$82,500.

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In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4% against the trend, achieving a new all-time high. In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4% against the trend, achieving a new all-time high.

Why it matters:

In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4% against the trend, achieving a new all-time high.