Bitcoin may bottom in October if historical reward-halving cycle holds
Your day-ahead look for May 19, 2026
What to know:
— Bitcoin is fewer than 100,000 blocks from its next halving in April 2028, when the mining reward is set to drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 bitcoins per block.
— Historically, bitcoin bear markets have tended to end 12 to 18 months before a halving, implying a potential bottom as early as October.
— One observer sees $76,000-$77,000 as critical support for BTC, with a clean break lower potentially opening the way to the $70,000–$72,000 area and then $60,000.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
We’re more than halfway to the Bitcoin blockchain’s next mining reward halving, a programmed supply slowdown that occurs every 210,000 blocks. There are now fewer than 100,000 blocks to go, and bears should take note even though they appear to have the upper hand in the market at the moment.
To appreciate the importance of this number, it helps to understand what a block actually is. The Bitcoin blockchain is a decentralized ledger containing a record of every transaction since its inception. Miners compete to add batches of transactions to the chain, and are rewarded with newly created bitcoin. A new batch, or block, is added roughly every 10 minutes, and miners currently receive 3.125 BTC each time.
In less than two years, or around April 12, 2028, that figure will drop by 50% to 1.5625 BTC, based on the number of blocks remaining.
That’s important because bitcoin bear markets have tended to end between 12 and 18 months before the next halving. This means the process could begin as early as October, a projection veteran chart trader Peter Brandt recently made.
It also means bears could continue to dominate price action for at least the next couple of months. There are plenty of risks, such as elevated oil prices, hardening Treasury yields and ETF outflows, that could deepen the selloff in the near term.
According to Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot, the $76,000 to $77,000 price zone is the immediate critical support level for bitcoin.
«A clean breakdown here brings $70,000 to $72,000 into view; the next major level below that is the $60,000 level,» he told CoinDesk. Stay alert.
What’s trending
— Echo Protocol suffers $76 million exploit in eBTC minting attack on Monad (CoinDesk): The Bitcoin-focused DeFi protocol suffered an attack in which about 1,000 unauthorized eBTC ($77 million) were minted on the Monad blockchain.
— SEC to propose tokenized stock framework as Wall Street efforts deepen: Bloomberg (CoinDesk): The SEC could soon introduce a framework for trading tokenized stocks, a move that may accelerate Wall Street firms’ push to bring traditional securities onto blockchain rails.
— No deal, no exit: How US-Iran standoff risks fresh conflict (Reuters): Three months after the U.S. and Israel staged an attack on Iran, a U.S. blockade and Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz have created a deadlock, with neither side bending, economic pain deepening and the risk of renewed war rising.
— Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasuries as Gulf War fallout stokes currency fears (CNBC): Foreign governments cut U.S. Treasuries as the Iran war forced central banks to liquidate dollar reserves, defending local currencies against an energy shock that sent exchange rates tumbling. China reduced its holdings to the lowest level since September 2008.
Today’s signal
The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond has been rising in a manner reminiscent of memecoins such as DOGE and SHIB during the first half of 2021.
The relentless surge has triggered bets on repatriation — Japanese investors liquidating their international investments and bringing money back home in a move that could strengthen the yen.
This unwinding could spark volatility across multiple asset classes. Participants at Consensus Hong Kong in February said altcoins could take a hit as well.