Bitcoin finishing May above the $76,000 mark would validate the start of a new bull market, according to Tom Lee.

During his address at Consensus 2026, Lee highlighted that tokenization and AI-driven financial agents are the primary forces propelling the upcoming crypto bull cycle.

Key takeaways:

• Tom Lee, from Fundstrat, stated that the crypto winter will officially end if Bitcoin achieves a third straight monthly gain in May, closing above $76,000.
• Lee noted that stablecoins and tokenized assets are emerging as the foundational infrastructure for AI-centric finance.
• He predicted that crypto-focused financial institutions might surpass traditional banks within the next ten years.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine (BMNR), argues that the crypto bear market has likely concluded, with a new cycle fueled by tokenization and AI-powered financial services beginning to take form.

Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Thursday, Lee highlighted Bitcoin’s recent performance.

Following positive monthly returns in March and April, BTC has risen approximately 5% so far in May, marking the third consecutive month of gains.

«In a bear market, Bitcoin has never closed up for three months in a row,» Lee remarked. «If Bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitively over.»

The Decryptnews Bitcoin Price Index closed April at $76,300, while the asset is currently trading just below $80,000.

Lee suggested that investors remain psychologically tied to the previous crypto downturn and are underestimating the strength of the current rebound. He also referenced bullish technical signals from veteran trader John Bollinger, who recently indicated his trend models have turned positive on Bitcoin.

Supporting the bullish case, Lee noted that software stocks — a sector previously pressured by AI disruption concerns and recently upgraded by Fundstrat — historically move in close correlation with Bitcoin. Since tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, Lee added, crypto assets have outperformed most traditional markets, with ether (ETH) leading gains.

Tokenization and AI agents driving next cycle

Fueling the next bull market in crypto are two megatrends disrupting finance: the migration of all assets onchain through tokenization and artificial intelligence (AI) agents utilizing blockchain rails.

Lee argued that AI agents will require capital to autonomously move value, increasingly relying on blockchain networks and tokenized financial systems.

He pointed to stablecoin adoption as evidence the transition is already underway. Stablecoin transaction volumes have already surpassed Visa payments, he said, while he referenced Grayscale’s report that the $300 trillion securities market will eventually migrate to blockchain rails as tokenized assets.

«The networks that host a large share of tokenized activity are going to capture the economic value,» Lee said.

That shift could radically reshape the economics of finance itself, he argued. Lee compared JPMorgan — projected to earn roughly $60 billion this year with 300,000 employees — to firms like stablecoin issuer Tether.

«Native digital companies using blockchain as settlement eliminate a lot of processes and people,» he said.

In Lee’s view, crypto-native financial firms could increasingly resemble the internet companies that displaced legacy media and telecom giants over the past two decades.

«In 10 years, half of the largest financial institutions in the world will be native digital,» he said.

UPDATE (May 7, 17:01 UTC): Adds presentation slides cited by Tom Lee during his Consensus 2026 keynote.