Prediction markets are shedding the ‘casino’ moniker to become a standard news-Tracking Tool
A fresh analysis from Bitget and Polymarket indicates that prediction markets are transforming into a $240 billion sector fueled by retail traders who are engaging more often in a wide array of topics, spanning from cryptocurrency to political events.
What to know:
— Prediction markets are transitioning from sporadic, event-specific wagers to ongoing platforms centered on frequent, smaller transactions by individual traders.
— Polymarket’s monthly trading volume has skyrocketed from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets more than tripling in just six months.
— As crypto-oriented users expand into markets linked to real-world happenings, prediction prices are increasingly utilized alongside conventional data to monitor sentiments regarding economics, politics, and culture.
Prediction markets are moving away from one-time wagers associated with major events toward platforms fueled by daily user interaction, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in collaboration with Polymarket.
Trading volume on Polymarket hit $25.7 billion in March, yet the report highlights a more profound behavioral transformation. Based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are visiting more frequently and participating across a broader spectrum of markets, from crypto to sports to politics.
The data indicates that expansion is being propelled by frequency rather than trade magnitude. Over 82% of users executed trades under $10,000 during the quarter, signaling that the market continues to be led by retail participants. Rather than making large, infrequent bets, users are conducting smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet’s chief operating officer. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting place. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major occurrences like elections. Instead, they are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We’re seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift is also changing how these markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated quickly. Monthly trading volume has climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability. Wallets are emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.