Oil surged past $112 amid warnings of potential destruction of Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not finalized by midnight, while cryptocurrency markets surrendered Monday’s ceasefire rally gains.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin dipped to approximately $68,600 following a brief rally driven by ceasefire news, continuing a six-week trend where geopolitical developments trigger fleeting price fluctuations within the $65,000 to $73,000 corridor.
- A surge on Monday, sparked by reports of a potential 45-day truce, led to nearly $200 million in short liquidations before prices receded after Iran reportedly dismissed the offer and sought wider concessions.
- Market participants are monitoring a Tuesday night deadline established by President Trump for Iran to approve a deal, as threats of significant military escalation and climbing oil costs increase macro uncertainty amidst mixed U.S. economic figures and ambiguous Fed policy indications.
Bitcoin retreated to $68,589 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday following the fading of Monday’s ceasefire-driven rally, as U.S. President Donald Trump issued a Tuesday night ultimatum for Iran to reach an agreement, threatening to demolish «every bridge in Iran by 12 o’clock tomorrow night» should the deal not materialize.
The leading cryptocurrency is down 0.6% over the past 24 hours after reaching $69,350 on Monday, when an Axios report regarding a potential 45-day ceasefire briefly pushed valuations above $69,000. That optimism persisted for roughly 12 hours. Ether declined 1% to $2,104, Solana’s SOL fell 2.7% to $79.75, XRP dropped 1.6% to $1.32, and dogecoin slipped 2.2% to $0.09. BNB remained relatively stable at $598.
The trend observed over the last six weeks played out as expected, with positive news briefly lifting prices before negative developments eliminated any prospects for a sustained recovery.
«This movement appears less like a fundamental change and more like positioning getting caught offside,» stated Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. «Sentiment heading into the weekend was heavily bearish, and short interest had accumulated across the market. Once ceasefire headlines emerged, that positioning had to be unwound.»
Monday’s rebound resulted in $196.7 million in short liquidations as bearish traders were caught off guard by the ceasefire report. The Tuesday pullback occurred after Iran reportedly conveyed a rejection of the ceasefire proposal to mediator Pakistan, calling for a permanent cessation of hostilities, the removal of sanctions, reconstruction initiatives, and safe passage through the Hormuz strait.
U.S. crude prices rose above $112 as Trump cautioned the military could render every power plant in Iran «out of business» if no agreement is reached, even as he noted talks were «going well.» Brent crude traded near $115.66, up 2.9% for the session. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recorded its longest winning streak since January despite the volatility, with stocks managing to retain small gains throughout the turbulence.
The broader economic landscape remains unclear. U.S. services data indicated the economy grew at a slower rate in March, employment contracted at its fastest pace since 2023, and input prices accelerated, presenting the Fed with no clear justification to cut or hold rates. Upcoming inflation data will further clarify the situation.
Bitcoin continues to trade within the $65,000 to $73,000 range it has occupied throughout the conflict. Every rally has hit a ceiling at the upper limit, while every selloff has found support at the bottom. The outcome by midnight Tuesday, when Trump’s deadline arrives, will dictate which end of this range is tested next.
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