Bitcoin hashrate posts first-quarter drop for first time in 6 years as miners pivot to AI
The first-quarter decline breaks a long-standing growth trend, but could ultimately support decentralization as public U.S. miners face losing dominance.
What to know:
— Bitcoin’s hashrate is down around 4% this year, the first first-quarter decline since 2020, following five consecutive years of double-digit growth.
— As mining economics deteriorate, firms are allocating capital to AI infrastructure, a shift that may reduce concentration among large U.S. miners and improve network decentralization.
For the first time in six years, the bitcoin
Over the past five years, the rate has surged from roughly 100 exahashes per second (EH/s), a 10-fold increase, according to Glassnode data. Each year, the metric rose during the first quarter and ended with strong full-year growth in excess of 10%. In 2022, the figure almost doubled.
The AI Pivot
The shift in 2026 reflects changing economics across the bitcoin mining sector. With production costs near $90,000 per bitcoin and the spot price closer to $67,000, margins are negative. In response, many publicly listed miners are switching to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure, where returns are higher and more predictable.
This transition is being funded through debt issuance and bitcoin sales, reducing reinvestment into bitcoin mining. As a result, hashrate growth is becoming more sensitive to the cryptocurrency’s price, with weaker prices likely to trigger further declines as smaller operators exit.
While a falling hashrate may raise concerns about network security, decentralization may matter more than absolute size. Publicly listed U.S. miners have accounted for over 40% of the global hash rate, and a reduction in their influence could lead to a more geographically distributed network. In that sense, the current shift may ultimately support decentralization.
Despite the slowdown, CoinShares still forecasts hashrate growth to around 1.8 ZH/s by the end of 2026, conditional on bitcoin recovering toward $100,000.