Long-term bitcoin holders are reducing their positions amid weakening institutional demand. Over the past month, they have sold about 405,000 BTC — over $43 billion in realized value. This was reported by a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Maartunn.
Bitcoinsensus experts noted that “we have seen similar scenarios back in March of 2024, and in December 24 /January 2025.”
One example is the activity of large wallets: according to CryptoQuant, the 195DJ address, owned by an early investor, sold 13,004 BTC in October, including 1,200 BTC (approximately $132 million) sent to the Kraken exchange last weekend.
At the same time, institutional demand, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs, is slowing. Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has recorded less than 600 BTC of net inflows each week.
“Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows. This is a sharp decline from the > 10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signaling a notable slowdown in institutional demand,” Glassnode said.
However, not all experts believe that this sale is a sign of the end of the bull market. An analyst at Credible Crypto explained it as a natural rotation of assets:
“What we’re seeing is a very clear distribution by “OG”‘s also known as “long term holders” into the hands of trad-fi and instos (buying on behalf of retail in many cases). The thing is- this doesn’t mean the “top is in” as we see this sort of selling from long term holders during every bull cycle and price is holding up very well.”
He added that this time the situation is special, because “what we are seeing now is arguably the biggest exchange of bitcoin that we have ever seen from OG’s/diamond hands into a relatively “new” cohort of holders that are NOT diamond hands and have likely never held significant amounts of Bitcoin through a major/prolonged bear cycle.”
According to the expert, “for the first time ever, a majority of bitcoin supply will be concentrated in the hands of a “new” cohort of holders […] one that likely does not have the mental fortitude or conviction to hold through such drawdown,” which, in his opinion, will be “the most devastating one we have ever seen in Bitcoin history.”
Meanwhile, online researcher Willy Woo agreed that such dynamics are natural for a bull market:
“Long term holder is a misnomer. Definition: any coin that has aged more than 5 months in a wallet address. LTH supply will drop in bull markets because those coins move to new investors. In 2025 it also means a custody rotation to launch a treasury company.”
Despite the sales, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, remains optimistic and told CNBC that bitcoin could reach $150,000-$200,000 by the end of 2025:
“IIf I look at everything since October 10th — because that was the biggest liquidation in the history of crypto, bigger than FTX, a margin call tsunami — we’re only a couple weeks from that. I think the market is consolidating. But if I look at fundamentals, like Ethereum and stablecoin volumes exploding and application revenues at all-time highs, right now fundamentals are leading the price in crypto.”
Earlier, Tom Lee noted that the crypto market cycle has lengthened, and bitcoin’s price could reach $250,000 by the end of the year. At the same time, October 2025 was the first “red” month for the first cryptocurrency since 2018: the asset dropped by 3.7%, and investors withdrew $799 million from bitcoin ETFs in the last week of the month alone.