Bitcoin has surpassed its all-time high, reaching $125,000, but this time without the support of institutional injections and ETFs, according to analyst firm QCP Capital. Despite the “signs of overheating” of the market, demand from retail investors remains high, and large holders (whales) do not record profits, which supports the current momentum.
The analysts stressed that the rise in gold and the US government shutdown from October 1, 2025, have renewed interest in bitcoin as a “safe-haven” asset.
“With Gold outperforming, BTC’s safe-haven appeal is reasserting itself, particularly after the U.S. government shutdown last Wednesday. The timing of the shutdown, paired with October’s historically bullish seasonality, may have provided the spark for this sustained move,” QCP Capital noted.
According to QCP Capital, bitcoin’s jump to a new high came amid low liquidity over the weekend, when inflows to spot ETFs were suspended.
At the same time, Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor even noted on Twitter that “no new orange dots this week,” hinting that there is no institutional buying at the moment.
No new orange dots this week – just a $9bn reminder of why we’re HODL. pic.twitter.com/P84m14WF3G
– Michael Saylor (@saylor) 5 October 2025
QCP Capital notes that this time, the market did not experience the usual short-term selling after breaking through the $123,000 level, as it happened twice before. This may indicate that “major whales may have completed their asset rotations or are holding steady in anticipation of an October breakout.”
According to experts, futures markets are highly leveraged, which could increase the risk of a short-term correction. On Deribit and Hyperliquid exchanges, BTC-PERP funding rates remain elevated at 35% and 29%, respectively.
QCP Capital recalled that a similar situation had already led to a sharp decline — “two weeks ago when nearly $3B in long positions were liquidated,” which then created a favorable moment for institutional buyers.
In the options segment, traders who remained short on call options expiring at the end of October were forced to move their strikes higher, to the range of $126,000 to $128,000, indicating growing confidence in the rally’s continuation.
At the same time, the first cryptocurrency’s balance sheets on centralized exchanges fell to their lowest levels in six years, reinforcing the narrative of scarcity that has historically driven price growth.
Despite the optimism of the retail sector, analysts warned that further growth in bitcoin will depend on institutional flows and the stability of the derivatives market.
“Momentum remains firm as leveraged traders continue to chase the move,” QCP Capital said.
Last week, spot bitcoin ETFs raised $3.2 billion, the second-largest amount in history, and the market is now closely watching to see if this trend continues.