Since the beginning of July 2025, Bitcoin has shown confident growth, increasing in price by over 15%. In the past few days, the value of the first cryptocurrency in USD has been setting new highs, surpassing $123,000 on July 14 for the first time. At the same time, the asset’s market capitalization exceeded $2.4 trillion, overtaking Amazon in this metric.

What is the reason for such a sharp Bitcoin rally? The Incrypted editorial team gathered the opinions of crypto analysts and thought leaders on the current state of the crypto market and its future.

Macroeconomic Environment and Institutional Demand — Key Drivers of Growth

Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Li told Incrypted that besides institutional support, the macroeconomic environment is also playing in Bitcoin’s favor: the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and the weakening dollar create conditions for maintaining a bullish momentum.

“The path to $150,000 in Q3 is becoming increasingly realistic, especially considering supply shortages and growing institutional demand,” the analyst added.

However, Li warned that the growth won’t be linear. The market may face short-term corrections due to profit-taking, price speculation, and geopolitical risks. In such a case, Bitcoin may consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range. He advised traders to closely monitor ETF inflows and political developments.

Benjamin Stani, Head of Ecosystem Development at Matrixport, explained that Bitcoin’s breakout to a new all-time high is the result of a combination of several key factors—from macroeconomics to the emergence of a new class of buyers.

According to him, the market had been trading in a very narrow range for a long time, and during the breakout, massive short position liquidations played a key role — helping overcome the resistance zone.

The decisive factor, in Stani’s opinion, is institutional demand. Significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs confirm active interest from large players. Another contributing factor is the emergence of so-called “Bitcoin treasuries” — companies raising capital to buy the first cryptocurrency.

He also noted that Bitcoin has reached new highs in dollar terms, but not yet in euros:

“So, to a large extent, the reason we’re seeing higher prices is also due to the dollar’s devaluation.”

Binance Regional Head for CEE, Central Asia, and Africa, Kyrylo Khomiakov, stated that the main driver of Bitcoin’s growth has been sustained interest from institutional investors, primarily via spot ETFs. He also pointed out an increased appetite for risk.

According to Khomiakov, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices are hitting all-time highs, and investors are actively buying stocks related to AI, technology, and the digital economy. Binance Research data shows a large-scale capital outflow from safe-haven assets into high-risk ones, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s growing popularity is a natural continuation of this trend, he said.

He also highlighted the trend of crypto adoption by businesses. More and more companies are including Bitcoin in their corporate reserves, expanding the concept of crypto treasuries.

“Today’s Bitcoin growth doesn’t look like a short-term spike, but rather the result of mature, multi-level demand at the intersection of macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption, and the rapid integration of cryptocurrencies into corporate financial strategies,” said Khomiakov.

Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, emphasized that the current Bitcoin growth has deeper reasons than mere speculative interest.

“This rally isn’t just momentum. It’s supported by the powerful interplay of multiple factors: institutional inflows via ETFs, political backing from Washington, and gradually improving macro liquidity,” Liu said.

In his view, Bitcoin has the potential to continue growing if these conditions remain and the market gets clear signals about upcoming Fed rate cuts.

“We’re entering a period where traditional valuation methods no longer fully apply. If ETF demand remains strong and expectations of rate cuts increase, Bitcoin could test the $130,000–$150,000 range by year-end,” Liu added.

He also noted that the growth rate will depend on retail investor activity. Key risks include weakened retail trust and potential political instability.

Cointelegraph analysts link the latest Bitcoin rally to institutional capital inflows, primarily through the spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT from BlackRock, which now holds a record $83 billion in assets under management.

Ledn CEO John Glover believes that Bitcoin has further upside potential — the price could reach $136,000 by the end of the year.

However, he warned that risk assets like Bitcoin might lose some ground if U.S. inflation accelerates, which could delay the Fed’s key rate cuts.

Still, he considers the downside potential limited, given the growing institutional interest, capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and positive regulatory signals from U.S. authorities.

Bitunix exchange analysts told Incrypted that the recent Bitcoin growth occurred amid rising inflation and tariff concerns. Despite global economic risks, the crypto market is showing strength, emerging from consolidation and liquidating many short positions, they said.

According to them, the next important resistance zone for Bitcoin lies between $125,200 and $127,000. The first cryptocurrency has already broken through several high short-concentration zones, indicating strong bullish sentiment.

At the same time, there’s growing risk of “chasing” the price at high levels. Bitunix noted that in the short term, investors should wait for a pullback to the support zone of $119,800–$121,000 before opening new long positions.

On a macro level, the situation remains tense. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is balancing between inflationary pressures and a weak labor market, Bitunix noted. With the August 1 deadline approaching and no signs of a repeat of the “TACO” scenario (Trump Always Chickens Out), companies might start raising prices to protect profits, delaying inflation effects, analysts said.

Market participants will be focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release scheduled for July 15 — this report may become a key signal for further Fed action and the outlook for risk assets.

SignalPlus Head of Analytics Augustine Fan warned in a CoinDesk comment that market sentiment could remain unstable through the end of summer:

“The only real risk may be a failure in tariff negotiations, but it all depends on President [Donald Trump] — how aggressively he wants to continue his current policy.”

Room for Further Growth

Fundamental and Technical Signals

CryptoQuant analysts highlighted a key market signal: the spot price of Bitcoin is currently higher than the price of perpetual futures on Binance. This suggests the market hasn’t entered a euphoric phase yet — especially in the derivatives segment.

“However, this negative gap is gradually narrowing — indicating a shift in sentiment: from cautious accumulation to growing optimism,” the report said.

CryptoQuant explained that historically, when this indicator turns “green,” it often precedes a parabolic Bitcoin rally, fueled by leverage and FOMO in the futures market. Experts recommend closely watching this indicator — once it turns positive, it could trigger a new upward move.

According to Cointelegraph, several blockchain indicators show the market hasn’t overheated yet. For instance, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders currently sits at 0.69 — below the 0.75 level that historically corresponds with market peaks.

For comparison, in the previous bull cycle, this indicator stayed above 0.75 for 228 days, while now it has only been around that level for about 30 days. This suggests there’s still room for growth.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. added that Bitcoin network activity is gradually increasing — the average daily number of transactions rose from 340,000 to 364,000 in two days. Still, these figures are below the peak values of 530,000–666,000 seen during previous all-time highs.

“There are no signs of active coin selling on the market. This strengthens both the fundamental and technical bullish signal,” Adler emphasized.

Historical Context and Long-Term Outlook

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao reminded readers how long it took Bitcoin to recover its previous all-time high after the 2014 crash, comparing it to the current situation.

“When I bought Bitcoin in 2014, it took three years to reach its previous ATH of $1,000 again — in January 2017. We were thrilled. […] Today, you can celebrate the current ATH. But in a few years, it will just be a fraction,” he said.

Investor and “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki commented on the new Bitcoin record, emphasizing the importance of timely investment.

“Bitcoin is trading above $120,000 — great news for those who already own it. Bad news for those who, for whatever reason, didn’t ‘pull the trigger.’ They have nothing,” Kiyosaki wrote.

He acknowledged that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 or even $1 million, but advises starting investments cautiously.

The Bitcoin Archive news channel reminded readers about the Pi Cycle Top indicator, which previously accurately predicted the top of the last three bull cycles. However, it currently doesn’t indicate a peak. In previous cycles, Bitcoin rose 25x and 6.4x from this stage.